PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 2
This suggests either that more capital would be needed in 1970,
or that investment through the 1960’s would have to average
more than the arithmetic mean of the initial and terminal
years, or that initial rates of return in the 1960’s would have to
be a little higher than in the 1950’s. We did not attempt to
resolve these questions in [5] but simply increased by a
constant proportion the initial rate of return in each industry,
thus changing the allocations of labour until, in total, they
were equal to the supply.
From these calculations we obtained preliminary estimates
of the changes required in the distribution and productivity of
labour during the 1960’s. We found that virtually the whole
of the increase in labour would be absorbed by the distributive
and service trades, leaving a stationary labour force to be
shared by the rest of industry. The calculated increases in
productivity varied widely from industry to industry. On the
whole they were higher than in the 1950’s but often not sen-
sationally so; in some cases they were lower.
We propose to discuss these estimates with outside experts
as opportunity arises, but we shall not go out of our way to
do this until our work on production functions is complete.
f) Changes in the spectrum of skills. The work we have
done so far on this subject is described in [5] [6]. We have
divided the labour force into three main functions, managerial,
clerical and technical, and have subdivided the last of these
into five categories, qualified manpower, technicians, crafts-
men, operatives and unskilled. From the census of population
of 1951 we can estimate the number of men and women in
each of these seven classes for each of our thirty-one industries
and for government services. For 1961 the census results are
not yet available and so we have made provisional estimates
based on statistics of unemployment and vacancies. In making
these estimates, we have tried to allow for the economic fluc-
t] Stone - pag. 72
