84 IMPORTATION OF CAPITAL INTO
the margin between the value of exports and the liability for
interest was becoming narrower through the operation of the
price-level even by 1890, since a diminution of prosperity equal
to £4 per head of the population had occurred, a decline that
was sufficiently serious without the intervention of other factors.
Examination of the figures presented with this chapter shows
clearly that neither the growth of population nor the expansion
of production kept pace with the increase in indebtedness. The
amount of the debt and the annual liability for interest are
the two aspects still necessary to conclude the survey. Coghlan
estimates that, by 1890, the total private payment of interest
abroad for New South Wales alone amounted to not less than
£2.75 millions, in addition to £1-75 millions on the public debt
or £4-5 millions in all.l If £2-75 millions represented the interest
on private debt and this was the average rate of interest for
the whole of the six colonies, the annual interest bill at this time
sxceeded £9 millions. Adding this to the £6 millions payable
on the public debtit is clear the total interest payable on both the
private and public debt of Australia amounted to, at least, £15
millions. Other estimates made at the time, based on different
data, agree so closely with this total that it may be accepted
with confidence? Allowing for that proportion of the private
debt which was purely speculative in character, the community
was faced with an annual interest bill amounting to not less
than £15 millions. A very interesting comparison of the pro-
sressive balance available for meeting the overseas debt can
now be extracted from Coghlan’s figures.
Tasre XIII
Progressive Balance available for Interest
(In Millions Sterling)
1861. | 1871. | 1881.
1891.
Total exports . . . . .
Aggregate interest on whole debt ;
Balance available . . : y ’
Percentage exports needed for interest
Percentage exports available to buy imports
16:6 | 231 | 312
2:0 40 | 8-0
46 | 191 | 232
1° 17 26
88 83 "4
36-3
15-0
21-7
41
89
1 Wealth and Progress of New South Wales, 1892.
2 Reginald Black estimated the total public and
and £400 millions.
private debt at between £350