194 THE BALANCE OF INDEBTEDNESS, 1918-28
a very broad fashion, is very difficult to come by.l That we must
look to the importation of capital, both public and private, for
the major dynamic behind these economic changes is now
certain ; but the main difficulty here concerns the computation
of the amount of private capital which has been invested in
Australia during recent years. A further attempt must be made,
therefore, to reckon the balance of indebtedness over the period
as a logical conclusion to the survey respecting the terms of
trade.
I. The Commodity Balance of Trade.
The importance of the commodity balance of trade as an
item in the total balance of indebtedness has already been dis-
cussed at some length. The argument may now be taken forward
another stage by indicating some of the more obscure effects of
borrowing upon the movement of commodities. Viner has
demonstrated conclusively that when a disturbing factor of
substantial proportions and long-continued duration, such as
the Australian overseas borrowings, ‘breaks the even balance
of debit and credit international obligations, an even balance
of payments is re-established, and is maintained in spite of the
debit balance of indebtedness, mainly through compensatory
variations in the commodity balance of trade, exclusive of
gold’. It is important to realize, first, how this compensatory
variation takes effect, and, secondly, the relatively greater part
played in the process of equilibration by imports as compared
with exports.
In the article from which a quotation has been selected to
introduce this chapter, A. C. Whitaker has shown that, with the
exception of the commodity balance and overseas borrowings,
all the other items in the balance of indebtedness are relatively
constant. They are of the nature of fixed charges, and our
previous examination of the Australian balance has shown
within how narrow a margin interest, freight, tourist expendi-
bure, insurance, and the rest, fluctuate from year to year. The
tension is sustained by the inflow and outflow of commodities ;
1 For the best and most exhaustive discussion of the post-war exchange position,
as well as for a clear exposition of the principles governing Anglo-Australian
sxchange, reference should be made to the section entitled ‘The Banking System
of Australia’, by Professor D. B. Copland, in Foreign Banking Systems, 1929
(Henry Holt & Co.).