THE BALANCE OF INDEBTEDNESS, 1918-28 195
and, in this sense, the commodity balance of trade may be
regarded as the ‘governor’ regulating the whole balance of
indebtedness.
Under normal conditions, however, variations in commodity
imports function more sensitively in this matter of maintaining
equilibrium than do variations in exports. Especially is the
variation in the flow of imports a critical function of the
borrowing cycle. By this means, and by this means almost
exclusively, is it possible to adjust the international balance of
indebtedness to the variations in capital borrowing. The argu-
ment has special reference to Australia which belongs to that
group of new and undeveloped countries needing the injection
of great amounts of capital for the rapid and effective exploita-
tion of their resources. For Australia, as for all such countries,
comparative advantage in foreign trade is ‘confined to the
export of the primary products of her natural resources, limited
in their range but representing a large part of her total com-
modity production’. Marked variations in the export of these
few commodities is a natural consequence of seasonal variations
in their production. Continuous production is, however, en-
forced by the necessity for providing employment, on the one
hand, and for meeting the charges on capital invested in the
industries, on the other. Changes in the price-levels for these
commodities in world markets will be followed only very slowly
by changes in production and export, and then only if the
price changes are maintained over long periods.
Imports, however, are far more flexible. They display much
greater variations, both in volume and ‘make-up’, than do
exports ; and are, moreover, less intimately associated with the
volume of domestic production. Thus it happens, as Viner
remarks for Canada, that ‘marked and rapid fluctuations in
imports cause less disturbance to industry, and necessitate less
internal readjustment, than do correspondingly marked varia-
tions in exports’. The natural consequence of the relations
existing between domestic production and overseas trade is that
the sharp adjustments in the commodity balance of trade
necessitated by capital borrowings are effected to a far greater
degree by variations in the rate of imports than by variations
in the volume of exports.
1 See Viner, op. cit, Chapter XI.