TOWARD A VERDICT ON MACROECONOMIC 
SIMULTANEOUS EQUATIONS 
HERMAN O.A. WOLD 
Universitetets Statistiska Institution - Uppsala - Sverige 
INTRODUCTORY 
[t is now 25 years since JAN TINBERGEN launched his 
pioneering macroeconomic models for the NETHERLANDS (1937), 
US (1939) and UK (1951). His approach marks a bold raise 
of aspirations levels, in economic thinking as well as in the 
statistical techniques of fact-finding and analysis, and above 
all in the systematic coordination of theoretical and empirical 
approaches. If we think of the allembracing sectors of eco- 
nomic life and the huge complex of static or dynamic interre- 
lations that the model builder sets out to master, the dimen- 
sions of his task bring to mind LAPLACE’s fathom who could 
forecast in detail the future course of events in the entire uni- 
verse by solving an enormous system of differential equations. 
It adds to the greatness of TINBERGEN’s work that large masses 
of economic-statistical data had gradually accumulated, that 
the young discipline of econometrics was in the starting holes 
for vigorous advances, and that it did not tarry long until his 
approach, now known as causal chain systems, was followed 
by other keen innovations, in the first line input-output analysis 
(LEONTIEF, 1041) and interdependent systems (HAAVELMO, 
2] Wold - pag.