SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 157 nents f;(#) and with residuals v, independently and normally distributed, the TANUS quotient (75) is distributed as m—r (81) Here the ¥2-variates are independent w indicated within paranthesis: x. squation .u degrees of freedorr are the roots ol det (C. 2C,—U where C is the product sum matrix « Wliüil and C, is the corresponding product sum matrix for the pre- diction range. It will be noted from (81) that the JANUS quo- tient tends to increase with the prediction span and with the number of free parameters. 2) Forecasting by the chain brincible We shall consider the case of a stationary unirelation mo- del M which we specify bv the representation (82a-b) * 5 - Br V1 +Ba V2 + «Ly U t 1, +X, v, , = [2] Wold - pag. 43