SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 16. 
(2) Macroeconomic quarterly model of UK, 1946-1956. 
(KLEIN-BALL-HAZLEWO0OOD-VANDOME, Refs. 347-39). 
As applied to a model like (36) for a sector of an economy, 
a predictive test of type (75) or (76) is of course of limited re- 
levance because the sector is liable to exogenous influences that 
may disturb or upset the model and thereby the forecasts. So 
much the more relevant is a predictive test of economic models 
that comprise the economy of an entire nation, although here 
too there are external disturbances on the international plane. 
The following figures report briefly an attempt to apply the 
JANUS quotient to the abovementioned model for UK 1946- 
1956. The model has not been published in such form as to 
give the theoretical values obtained from the model in the 
observation range; hence the quotient has only been calculated 
for three variables, and is partly based on reading off the 
graphs of the residuals. Since the tests refer only to a small 
fraction of the model it need not be emphasized that the figures 
are only given to illustrate the technical procedure of the pre- 
dictive test (26). 
Year 
1957 
1958 
1959 
Quart 
Janus 
nuoti- 
Industrial 
productior 
Price index o 
‘inal output 
tere 
abe 
) 
The various generalizations and adaptations of the jaNUS 
quotient focus on iust one aspect of forecasting accuracy. na 
(**) My thanks are due to Miss INGRID AGERHOIM and Mr. K. NAzIMUn. 
DIN for assistance in the computations 
[2] Wold - pag. 47