SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 
73 
minary calculations described in [5] we found that the in- 
creases of output required of our thirty-one industries during 
the decade of the 1960’s varied from zero to over 100%. 
Apart from the allowance, already mentioned, for a trend 
projection in the prices of the main groups of private con- 
sumption, the estimates were all made at 1960 prices. In other 
words, only one cycle of calculations was made. We did not 
calculate shadow prices for 1970 and allow these to modify 
the composition of consumption or the technical coefficients 
of production. We plan to do this as soon as our production 
functions are readv for use. 
e) The industrial distribution of labour. These calcula- 
tions were based on (IV. 10). We first estimated the labour 
force available to our thirty-one industries in 1970, starting 
from official projections of the total labour force [49]. We 
allowed for 1.5%, of unemployment and for government de- 
mands in line with our estimates of government expenditure 
on different purposes. The result was a 5% increase in labour 
available over the decade compared with a 50%, increase in 
output. 
In applying (IV. 19) we took the increases in output at 
1960 prices, already calculated, to represent pAy. We based 
our estimates of the initial rates of return, r*, on the experience 
of the period 1948-1960, subject to a minimum rate of return 
of 5%. We estimated investment in fixed assets over the 
decade, v*, as five times the sum of the 1960 level and the 
1970 level, the latter being obtained by adding together our 
estimates of industrial replacements and extensions. We estim- 
ated the industrial real-wage rates over the decade, w, by 
increasing the 1960 wage rates in the different industries by 
one half of the increase in labour productivity required over 
the decade in industry as a whole. On this basis, the total 
labour demanded was 49%, in excess of the estimated supply 
.] Stone - pag. 
71