SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC.
105
trary, it is my view that this is a process which must be regarded
with the greatest suspicion. Past experience with theories in physics
shows that what was fashionable at one time or in a certain period
was subsequently completely invalidated. We must therefore be very
critical about the choices made by current opinion, and personally
I would abstain from taking up any position on the question of
whether the choices which are presently those of the majority are or
are not useful or fruitful. TI only think that it is necessarv simply
to be very careful.
A fourth point is that there are three essential stages in the con-
struction of a model. The first, the working out of the basic assup-
tions follows a process of successive approximations similar to that
mentioned by Professor STONE. The second stage is purely logical,
a deductive stage in which essentially mathematical techniques are
applied. Finally, the third and probably the most important stage
is the confrontation of the theory and the facts. Further, I believe
that these are Professor STONE’s ideas, but it seems to me that his
conception is more neutral, and it appeals to me personally more than
some of the points of view which have been expressed. I do not
think that we ought to have a priori or normative ideas about what
we are going to do. It is first necessary to understand well and to
describe properly, and the basic aim of those who construct
models ought to be above all to give as complete information as
possible, and I would add, as neutral as possible. It is also desirable
that there exist decisional models in parallel with this, but these are
completely separate fields. There is the description of facts, their
explanation, and action, which implies normative choices, but each
of these stages must be kept separated carefully. Thank vou.
SCHNEIDER
What does it mean: « Models must be neutia
; Stone - pag. 103