(16
PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28
1943). The literature of the area is large and rapidly expand-
ing. The high goals of macroeconomic model building, that
much is now clear, are an important incentive for the develop-
ment of new techniques in quantitative economic analysis.
Thus in the short period of 25 years it has become manifest
that macroeconomic model building is a mighty challenge to
econometric method. At the same time it has emerged as a
significant factor in the long range scientific evolution.
It is appropriate to evoke the long range perspective if we
call to account in the challenge, asking for the results thus far
obtained in macroeconomic model building. Immediate bene-
fits of an indirect nature have often and rightly been emphas-
ized, including the build-up of knowledge about macroeconomic
facts, the improvement of statistical data-collection, and the
training of new cadres of econometricians in theoretical and
applied work, all of which are tangible boons that cannot be
overrated. As to direct results in the form of forecasts and
other types of operational inference from the models, the
horizon is eagerly watched for signals of progress. On this
score the outlook is more undecided, and leading authorities
have voiced scepticism and disappointment about the reported
achievements. A symptomatic feature is the recent symposium
in Econometrica (!) with the motto « Simultaneous equation
systems: Any verdict yet? » But here patience is in order,
for, to repeat, 25 years is a short time to master the tremendous
tasks at issue.
The Study Week, a most felicitous initiative of the Pontifical
Academy of Sciences, provides a forum for unprejudiced ap-
praisal of ends and means, aspirations and actual achievements
in macroeconomic model building. The timing of the Study
Week could not have been better. There is plenty of progress
in the many avenues of scientific research and development
that run together in a fullfledged macroeconomic model. On
(1) Econometrica, October 1960, Refs. 6 and 7. Cf. also Refs. 8 and o.
21
Wold - pag. 2
