SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 157
nents f;(#) and with residuals v, independently and normally
distributed, the TANUS quotient (75) is distributed as
m—r
(81)
Here the ¥2-variates are independent w
indicated within paranthesis: x.
squation
.u degrees of freedorr
are the roots ol
det (C. 2C,—U
where C is the product sum matrix
«
Wliüil
and C, is the corresponding product sum matrix for the pre-
diction range. It will be noted from (81) that the JANUS quo-
tient tends to increase with the prediction span and with the
number of free parameters.
2) Forecasting by the chain brincible
We shall consider the case of a stationary unirelation mo-
del M which we specify bv the representation
(82a-b)
*
5 - Br V1 +Ba V2 +
«Ly U t 1, +X, v, , =
[2] Wold - pag. 43