156 AUSTRALIAN BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL
There is no reason to believe that this estimate comprises the
total sum of private borrowing from abroad in the years under
review. In addition to the sums for which the London market
was publicly approached, there must have been a considerable
amount transferred of which no public record exists. But it
does, at any rate, indicate the growing importance of the
‘business’ loan ; and is, in addition, a fair index of the propor-
tion between public and private borrowing. But, as an offset
to this calculation, it is to be presumed that some amount of
duplication occurs, especially where loans were opened for
subscription on both the London and Australian markets.
Again, there is some ground for mis-statement in the difference
between the amounts authorized and the amounts subscribed.
It is thought, therefore, that the omissions on one side of the
account may very well cancel out the over-statements on the
other. In any case, there was an ever-accumulating burden of
indebtedness overseas that was reduced on only one or two
occasions by redemptions. The old debt was usually carried on
by means of conversion loans.
It is, unfortunately, quite impossible in the present condition
of our business statistics to give more than a very rough
estimate as to the amount of overseas capital effectively invested
in Australia prior to 1901. The very great losses consequent
upon the reconstructions and failures after 1893 make our former
estimate under this head entirely useless for the period now being
treated ; and resort had to be made to the very disconnected and
inadequate primary records of the stock exchange, company
records, and financial journals. It is known that considerable
payments are made annually to shareholders abroad in con;
nexion with investments in mining, pastoral, and mercantile
concerns operating in Australia. The sum-total which leaves
these shores year by year in the form of interest and dividends
cannot, however, be disregarded in our computation. That it
is considerable in volume, and an important factor in the total
balance of indebtedness, is beyond any doubt. From anexamina-
tion of a mass of data bearing upon this point it is concluded that
the total investment of private capital from overseas could not
be less than the order of £150 millions at the end of the period
and might easily be considerably more. It has been assumed for
the purpose of establishing a balance of indebtedness, therefore,