CHAPTER XVII
THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE RETURN
TO GOLD IN 1925
"The re-adoption of the gold standard may prove in the future to have been the
wrong policy to adopt: revolution may undo again what was done last year, or the
slower and more subtle modifications which the development of technique can
bring with it may perhaps make the recent change irrelevant. But for the moment
bhe fundamental decision, fatal or beneficent, good or evil, has been taken; and we
are now concerned, not with questions of high principle, but with questions—irri-
tating, difficult, insistent questions—of immediate policy and results. It is with
these questions, and not with the gold standard as such, that we are concerned
aere.”—Prof. T. E. GREGORY, The First Year of the Gold Standard.
"The credit restriction already in force has been effected in several ways which are
vartly independent. First, there is the embargo on new issues which probably
retards the normal rate of the circulation of money; then in March the bank-rate
was raised; more recently market-rate was worked up nearer to the bank-rate;
astly—and far the most important of all—the Bank has manceuvred its assets
ind liabilities in such a way as to reduce the amount of cash available to the
Clearing Banks as a basis for credit. This last is the essential instrument of credit
restriction. . . . Credit restriction is an incredibly powerful instrument . . . especially
n circumstances where the opposite course is called for. The policy of deliberately
ntensifying unemployment with a view to forcing wage reductions is already partly
n force, and the tragedy of our situation lies in the fact that, from the point of view
of the advocates of the gold standard, this course is economically justifiable.’—
Mr. J. M. KeyNEs, The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill,
For Australia the decision to return to gold was made at a most
propitious moment. Actually, in point of time, the event could
not have happened more fortunately. But the ease with which
the change was accomplished, and the apparent absence of
untoward consequences, have been responsible for a too-ready
acceptance of the belief that the restoration has had none but
good effects upon the economic situation in the Commonwealth.
Yet we should be justified, on the grounds of economic theory
alone, in adopting an attitude of profound scepticism towards
this belief ; and, in fact, all the weight of the evidence is in the
other direction. In the first place, Australia is, financially, so
dependent upon Great Britain,! and the monetary systems of the
two countries are so vitally connected, that a circumstance which
! ‘There is no evidence that the position of dependence is likely to be changed
in the near future. Australis at present finances most of her external payments
through London, and accepts the prevailing rates of exchange ruling in London.
There is thus no independent exchange market; and the rates of exchange vary
only occasionally as announced by the banks after agreement with the Common-
wealth Bank. —Copland in Foreign Banking Systems, p. 85.