CONTINUOUS BORROWING 237
ment of the national standard of living to its economic maxi-
mum. The final form of the test to be applied, therefore,
becomes a comparison between indebtedness as measured by
the annual interest charge, and productivity as measured by
the value of the disposable national income per head; and
Dyason would seem to be guilty of a false economic emphasis
when he regards the proportion between external debt and total
wealth as the critical test to be applied to the public debt. This
is the more remarkable since he does proceed to an excellent
comparison of productivity, national dividend, and annual
interest payments.
The disposable income which is capable of application in
discharging external indebtedness consists of those products
which have been called in an earlier chapter foreign-trade com-
modities. The Commonwealth Statisticians estimate of the
value of Australian production is arranged in six divisions, viz.
agricultural, pastoral, dairy, forestry and fisheries, mining, and
manufacturing. Of these it is safe to assume that not more than
10 per cent. of divisions IV and VI enter into foreign trade ;
indeed from the calculation by Wickens noted previously this
would appear to be a liberal estimate. The remainder of total
production can therefore be accepted as a fair estimate, com-
parable from year to year, of disposable income. The second
table with this alteration. and brought up to 1927, is given on
p. 238.
From this analysis some very important results are to be
obtained for the purpose of estimating the relative marginal
productivity of the debt from year to year. and hence of
Australia’s capacity to borrow. These may now be summarized:
(i) The ratio of total debt to production rose from 10-8 to
13-3 per cent. in the nine years. That is to say, the per-
centage of that part of the national income used for
paving for overseas debt increased by 23 ver cent.
(ii) The ratio of the external interest to production, i.e. the
ratio of annual overseas interest to that part of the
national income available for that purpose increased by
22-5 per cent.
(iii) The ratio of the external debt to the whole national
dividend rose from 3-5 to 4-6. an increase of 31 per cent.