240 ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CONTINUOUS BORROWING
of an excellent piece of statistical analysis. But it scarcely
affects the main question as to whether the productiveness of
the public debt justifies continued borrowing abroad, or, in
fact, whether it ever has justified that policy. For it is difficult
to concede that the expenditure of external loans would either
be as carefully administered or as fruitful as the expenditure of
a similar amount of domestic savings by means of internal
loans. Nor can it be said that the lengthy array of government
deficits and private insolvencies in recent years affords empirical
support to his argument.
Impartial consideration of the statistics of the position,
indeed, scarcely justifies the complacency with which Dyason
regards the national position.! Neither his own analysis nor the
facts of recent experience in the economic life of Australia would
seem to support his statement that ‘the nation has now fully
recovered from the losses inflicted by the war’. Still less can
his dictum be accepted that ‘the burden of indebtedness does
not begin to approach the danger-point either to debtor or
creditor’. If the point he has in mind marks the arrival of
national insolvency he is undoubtedly right. If, however, he
refers to the point where diminishing returns begin to operate,
that point is not being approached, it is already far behind.
Uneasiness concerning this aspect is, in fact, indicated by his
admission that ‘the figures of national income per head over the
past sixteen years, when reduced to pre-war values, are not so
encouraging as to make it certain that large expenditure of loan
moneys on development has produced corresponding benefits
in production’.
* For a careful analysis of the productive capacity of the Australian public debt
see the less sanguine statistical summary by Sir Lennon Raws, ‘ Australian Loan
Expenditure’, Economic Record, Nov. 1928.
The permanent equipment upon which loan money has been expended in the
Commonwealth is indicated by the following table:
Summary of Loan Expenditure in Australia.
Railways and Tramways .
[rrigation and Water-works
Advances to Settlers
Harbours and Rivers
Industries and Mines
Closer Settlement
Roads and Bridges .
€ m.
332
122
Public Buildings
Posts and Telegraphs
Costs of Raising Loans
Electric Supply . .
Advances for Houses .
[mmigration .
£m.
25
22
20
17
B