Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1028805233

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-44741

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Dove, Karl http://d-nb.info/gnd/116190957

Title:: Methodische Einführung in die allgemeine Wirtschaftsgeographie

Place of publication:: Jena

Publisher:: Verlag von Gustav Fischer

Year of publication:: 1914

Scope:: 1 Online-Ressource (51 Seiten)

Digitisation:: 2018

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: III. Abschnitt. Geographie des Verkehrs

Collection:: Economics Books

= à PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 I gather that the two first question marks are largely rhetoric, and in any case I agree with the answer he gives in the next sen- tence. To paraphrase, the construction of economic theories is one thing (namely, the theoretical part of model building), and to con- front it with the facts is something different (namely, the empirical part of model building). Thus at this point I would only emphasize more clearly that although the theoretical and empirical aspects of model building should be kept distinct, at least in principle, we should always keep in mind that a fullfledged scientific model is a synthesis of theoretical and empirical knowledge. As to the second group of Professor HAAVELMO’s question marks, it seems to me that they will get clearcut answers if the model builder has taken care to specify in not too vague terms for what broad array of facts, applications, his model is designed to be valid, and if the applications include policy making he should specify what changes in policy, if any, it is the purpose of the model to cover. If not for anything else, such specification is essential when it comes to the verification and testing of the model. Furthermore, the spectrum of potential changes of policy, is extremely wide, and the substance of a model would in many cases become too diluted if the model tried to cover more than a relatively small sector of potential changes. For example, a relation of consumer demand may remain the same under very different regimes of economic policy, whereas many other parts of economic life are quite suscep- tible even to small changes of policy. A more specific reply to the last sentence of Professor HAAVELMO’s comments is that in case an economic forecasting model ‘nfluences government policy, this creates a feedback problem which n principle belongs under the construction of a more comprehensive model that includes the interaction between forecasting and policy. Feedback phenomena may be more or less difficult to handle, but even if they are difficult they do not make model building impos- sible. For example, feedback models are commonplace in the theory of servomechanisms. Since the argument about a change in policy has been in fre- 2] Wold - pag. 64

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