Denkschrift betreffend die Neuregelung der handelspolitischen Beziehungen Deutschlands zu den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika

Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1031936459

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-64150

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Denkschrift betreffend die Neuregelung der handelspolitischen Beziehungen Deutschlands zu den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: [Mitteleuropäischer Wirtschaftsverein in Deutschland]

Year of publication:: 1905

Scope:: 1 Online-Ressource (89 Seiten 4"(8"))

Digitisation:: 2018

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: VII.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D’ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 117 the empirical side, the assessment of quarterly data sets new standards of fact finding, standards that are highly influenced if not called forth by the subject-matter considerations embodied in the model building. For another thing, causal chains and interdependent systems have turned out to be genuine inno- vations in dynamic model building, not only in econometrics but in the wide realm of nonexperimental model construction. At the level of the stochastic foundations of model building the innovation has posed new types of problem; the debate of the 1950’s on the rationale of simultaneous equation systems shows that it has taken a long time to sort out and come to grips with these key issues. As to the design and actual construction of macroeconomic models, several projects are in the picture, of different types, of different size, and at different stages of com- pletion. It is an important task to subject the accumulated material to systematic scrutiny and comparative studies, with a view to assess the theoretical and practical value of the achieve- ments, and, what is perhaps even more important in the present stage of development, to obtain guidance for further work. The present report focusses on three specific aspects of macroeconomic models: 1) The three types of simultaneous equation systems known as vector regression (VR-), causal chain (CC-) and interdependent (ID-) systems are presented as three levels of generality in the mathematical design of dynamic models. The step from CC- to ID-systems is crucial from the point of view of the operative use of (a) the behavioural relations, and (5) the reduced form. Thus in CC-systems all relations (a)-(b) can be specified as eo ipso predictors, that is, as conditional expec- tations subject to random disturbance, whereas ID-systems allow such specification for relations (b) but in general not for relations (a). This parting of the ways is the stochastic aspect of the much-discussed feature that the behavioural relations of CC- but in general not of ID-systems are designed for a [2] Wold - pag. 3

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