Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter X. Summary

Collection:: Economics Books

CHAPTER X SUMMARY The problem under discussion in the foregoing chapters is the relation of seasonal and cyclical fluctuations in employment to seasonal and cyclical fluctuations in migration, with particular reference to immigration into, and emigration from, the United States. The major issues may conveniently be recapitulated in two questions—namely: (1) To what extent are fluctuations in migration attributable to fluctuations in employment? (2) To what extent, in turn, are fluctuations in migration an ameliorating influence, and to what extent an aggravating factor, in employment and unemployment fluctuations? Similarities in Fluctuations of Employment and Migration. With reference to the first of the above questions, the facts pre- sented in the preceding chapters show clearly that there are both strong cyclical and seasonal movements in immigration and emi- gration and abundant evidence that when immigration is not res- tricted the character of the cyclical variations, at least, is closely similar to the cyclical variations in employment opportunity in the United States. A fairly close similarity is also found in the seasonal movements. The seasonal peak in immigration is in the spring, well-timed for the summer increase in those outdoor activities in which many new immigrants ordinarily find employment; and the maximum emigration is reached in the late fall and early winter when jobs are becoming relatively scarce. Similarly, a period of depression in the United States is ordinarily accompanied or closely followed by a decline in immigration and an increase in emigration; and a period of prosperity, by an increase in immigration and a decline in emigration. This statement is not, of course, to be in- terpreted as signifying an invariable rule. For this and the other tendencies noted below, there have been various exceptions and qualifications mentioned in the more detailed analysis in the sep- 20

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