Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The analysis of economic systems / Richard Stone, Cambridge University - Cambridge - Great Britain

Collection:: Economics Books

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The analysis of economic systems / Richard Stone, Cambridge University - Cambridge - Great Britain

Collection:: Economics Books

PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 The results of fitting the model consisting of (IV. 20), (IV. 21) and (IV. 22) to annual data for Britain relating to eight main commodity groups from 1900 to 1960 are given in [45]. On the whole the fit is good, and in two cases where comparisons were easy to make, namely food and clothing, we found close agreement between the total expenditure elasticities derived from the model and the corresponding estimates derived independently from family budgets. A still better fit was obtained with quadratic trends in b and ¢ [39]. But such simple trends are certainly not ideal for projection purposes and we are now working on more complicated varieties. The model can be fitted simultaneously to time series and budgets [39] and can be generalised to cover adaptive behaviour, that is gradual responses to changes in circumstances 71 [35] The model is decomposable and so can be applied hierarchically. This means that we can start with an analysis of main groups, then analyse separately the sub-groups of these main groups, then the sub-groups of the sub-groups ,and so on [7]. At each stage we can check on the performance of the model. This is necessary because we may expect that its performance will get worse as we go into greater and greater detail unless we are able to take the special features of individual markets into account. As with other parts of the main model, we are working at present on improving it, and are trying to obtain outside comments on the projections it yields. This brings me to the second requirement: estimates of future prices. We start with an extrapolation of current pricetrends and adjust the base-year expenditure to allow for this change in prices. This adjustment is based on the constantutility price-index implied by the model [19], which can be written in the form p*,/p, where ‘IV. 25) ur I Stone - pag. 52 21 + (0 L'oC1) Ya

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