THE PRE-WAR QUARTER CENTURY 
cent deviation in immigration. This ratio of ten to one is some- 
what arbitrarily chosen,* nor could the correct ratio be determined 
without full knowledge of the number of immigrants destined for 
gainful employment as compared with the number of persons em- 
ployed in the occupations and geographical areas affected by immi- 
gration. However, the visual impression received from Fig. C 
probably comes closer to a correct interpretation of the relative 
numbers involved than is furnished by either of the two methods 
first considered. 
But another question arises which is not answered by any of the 
three graphs so far considered; that is, what is the cumulative 
immigration during the period of declining employment? In Fig. 
D we have a comparison between the employment curve shown in 
Fig. C and a bar chart showing the cumulative number of male 
immigrants beginning in June, 1893, the first month in which the 
employment curve shows a decided cyclical drop. Though, as just 
noted, the employment curve begins to drop sharply in June, im- 
migration continues to some extent, and, while it also declines 
sharply, in no month of these three years were there less than five 
thousand immigrant males arriving. By the end of September, 
1894, when the employment curve first begins to show a decided 
recovery, over 270,000 males had immigrated. Obviously, even 
such a severe depression as that of 1893-1894 did not operate to 
check immigration completely, and it seems unquestionable that 
some of these 270,000 newly arrived Immigrants from June, 1893, 
to September, 1894, found employment with great difficulty or 
replaced others who were forced into the ranks of the unemployed. 
However, in interpreting the significance of cumulative im- 
migration in depression periods, it should be noted that, as in Chart 
15, the cycle curves ordinarily represent deviations from an upward 
trend, and this trend in employment may be more than sufficient to 
offset such upward trend as is present in the available number of 
workers other than immigrants. In such case, at least part of the 
cumulative immigration is absorbed by the trend in employment. 
In the following pages no one of the four methods of graphic 
comparison illustrated in Chart 15 has been used exclusively; but 
in each case the method of presentation has been determined by the 
‘Based upon consideration of the fact that in the early nineties the number of persons 
engaged in manufacturing was between 4,000,000 and 5,000,000 and the annual im- 
migration then averaged somewhat less than ten per cent of that number; hence the 
number of persons represented by 4 one per cent change in factory employment was 
roughly approximate to the number involved in a ten per cent change in immigration. 
99