MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
H. Hansen. He correlated various monthly series with wholesale 
prices in the United States, and found the maximum correlation of 
prices with immigration (4.696) to occur when no lag is assigned 
to either series, but that the maximum correlation of employment 
and prices is obtained when unemployment changes are assumed to 
precede prices by three months. He makes the surmise that this 
earlier movement in employment “may possibly be explained in 
part at least by the fact that the building series precedes the in- 
TABLE 21.—CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF MALE IMMIGRANTS DURING THE DECLINE 
AND DEPRESSION PERIOD OF 1903-1904» 
Thousands of Persons 
NUMBER ARRIVED NUMBER ARRIVED 
YEAR gt Te YEAR —- a —_ 
AND MONTH SINCE | SINCE AND MONTH SINCE SINCE 
MARrcH, 1903» Drc., 1903¢ Marca, 1903 Dec., 1903 
1903 1904 (con.) 
Apr. Le 100.3 GI Apr, itn 698.9 175.2 
May.'..5. 200.1 be May... ... 768.5 244.8 
June... ... 268.2 A June. .... 817.3 293.6 
Judy... 312.1 op uly... 854.3 330.6 
Angin 353.1 ha ATE 890.9 367.2 
Sept... 399.9 SY) Sept... Tans 406.4 
Ook. sons 451.1 — OL ns os 448.9 
NOV. a 495.0 ep NOV. iii. en 495.5 
Deel. ili, 523.7 Aral Dee. i 539.9 
1904 1905 
Jan... 543.2 19.58a Jan... ..-. aise 582.4 
Pebii..k 567.5 43.8 Feb... Sele 634.9 
Mar... ... 629.6 105.9 Mar....... 1. 736.7 
aCompiled from Table II, in appendix. 
bThe data in this column cover the period of declining factory employment. » 
: Jee data in this column cover the period during which factory employment was below its computed 
rend. 
dustrial group by several months. The slackening of building 
operations would affect unemployment.” 
While Professor Hansen did not compute directly the correlation 
of immigration with pig iron and imports, his correlation with prices 
would suggest that the maximum degree of correlation between 
immigration and pig iron would be reached with immigration 
lagging one month, and likewise for imports. 
It may be mentioned in passing that other students of cyclical 
fluctuations in the first decade or so of the present century have 
found a close relation between immigration and industrial activity. 
The Brookmire service, in analyzing various cyclical phenomena 
102