Full text: Migration and business cycles

115 MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
being here for a permanent sojourn. The noteworthy difference in 
the two sections of Chart 21 is that when nonemigrants are included 
the departures of aliens were so numerous from December, 1907, 
to August, 1908, inclusive, that there was practically a continuous 
excess of alien departures over arrivals, suggesting that the tem- 
porary element in the alien population is more susceptible to changes 
in employment conditions than those aliens officially classified as 
immigrants. 
The Depression of 1911. 
The year 1910 was marked by a gradual decline into a mild de- 
pression in 1911, and dullness continued through the first few 
months of 1912. In 1911 crops were very poor, but in 1912 they 
were much better, and the industrial dullness in the early months 
of that year gave way to a great activity in the latter part of the 
year, accompanied by reports of labor scarcity. The depression of 
1911 is not marked in the Federal Reserve Bank’s clearings index, 
nor does it appear as a below-trend period in our three-state index 
of factory employment, though this index does show a relatively 
continuous decline from the peak in January, 1910, to the middle 
of 1912. The movement is shown more distinctly as a depression 
in the fluctuations of pig iron production and in the male immigra- 
tion curve. 
Net Male Alien Arrivals and Changes in the!NumberiUnemployed. 
In the depression of 1911 we have an opportunity for the 
first time to study the net immigration of males by months. In 
Table 27 and Chart 22 we have a comparison designed to make 
clear the numerical proportion between changes in the number 
unemployed in non-agricultural pursuits, as estimated by Professor 
Hart, and the net additions to the working population through 
migration. For this purpose the number of alien male immigrants 
and nonimmigrants combined, less the number of alien male emi- 
grants and nonemigrants, has been taken to represent the indus- 
trially significant net immigration. It will be recalled that somewhat 
similar comparisons have been made with the same data for twelve- 
month periods from 1903 to 1914 (Chart 20). The present discussion 
merely presents the same data in a different manner. 
In the left-hand section of Chart 22 the comparison is between 
the net arrivals for three-month periods and the net change in 
numbers unemployed in the same three-month periods. In this 
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