14. MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
Prior to 1914, it will be noted, the ratio of nonemigrants to the
total fluctuated within the narrow range of 42.9 to 49.6 per cent;
and after 1914, shows no striking changes except a general increase
during the war period, and a sharp decline in 1920, followed in 1923
and 1924 by a marked increase. Probably the 1920 decline may be
attributed to the fact that the preceding years had not been favor-
able to the arrival of large numbers of temporary immigrants and,
consequently, most of those who made up the rising tide of emigra-
tion in 1920 were aliens who had established a relatively permanent
residence in the United States and were consequently classified as
emigrants rather than nonemigrants if they were leaving for a
permanent sojourn abroad. In 1923 and 1924 there is a rise in the
proportion of nonemigrants, due, in part at least, to the fact that
certain classes of temporary emigrants are not subject to the quota
limit law and hence pass in and out of the country in much the same
volume as before the law was passed.
Graphic Comparison of Departing Aliens, by Sex and Permanency
of Migration.
As in the case of all alien departures, there is much general simil-
arity observed in the cyclical fluctuations when outgoing emigrants
and nonemigrants are classified by sex. The fluctuations in the
annual data for total, male, and female emigrants, respectively, and
for total, male, and female nonemigrants, respectively, are shown
in Chart 28, which, like most of the charts in this chapter, is a
“rate-of-change’’ chart, appropriate for comparison of relative rates
of change but not capable of being used for comparison of the actual
numbers involved. The reader who is interested in the actual
number of emigrants of the given type should turn to Table 38,
which contains the data from which this chart is plotted.
While the six curves in Chart 28 show a pronounced general
resemblance, there are noteworthy differences in detail.
Emigrants and Nonemigrants.
In the comparison between emigrants and nonemigrants in Chart
98 we again find that, although the fluctuations in the nonemigrant
element are somewhat less violent, there are no persistent marked
differences between the permanent and temporary elements. The
male nonemigrant curve is quite similar to the emigrant curve, ex-
cept that it reaches a peak in 1914 as compared with 1912 for emi-
grants, shows a spurt in 1918, reaches a peak in 1921 as compared
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