100
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
a
MHL
pili ry 10 Vig
So far as concerns Great Britain, there is of course much less
occasion to turn to an explanation based on the theory of dislocated
exchanges. The gold standard having been maintained in Great
Britain, and most of the country’s trade conducted with other
countries also having the gold standard, the mechanism of specie
flow and specie prices was in operation for the larger part of her
international mechanism. It is comparatively simple in theory,
even tho, as we have seen, by no means without its complications in
actual operation. At all events it is different from that of paper
exchanges. Professor Graham has noted, to be sure, certain
tendencies in the prices of British goods during the period in ques-
tion which are quite in accord with the tendencies in the United
States. They are in accord, that is, in that they show inverse
movements of the kind to be expected under dislocated exchanges.
The relations in Great Britain between her domestic prices and the
foreign or international prices indicate a congruence (mutatis
mutandis) with the analogous relations in the United States. But
the evidence on this score is meager, and in interpreting it one can
easily be led to discovering that which one has set out to find. It
ts the American phenomena which may be fairly said to verify the
conclusion of theory.
Finally, it should be borne in mind that the episode covers a
comparatively short period, and that only the earlier and transi-
tional effects of changes in the balance of payments (in this case
from the borrowing operations) are illustrated. There was no
long-continued steady succession of loans; merely two marked
stages of opposite character — unusually heavy borrowing during
the first, abrupt cessation of the borrowing during the second.
When loans set in afresh after 1879, the paper régime had come to
an end. The features characteristic of dislocated exchanges are
hence observable only for a scant decade. We are able to discern
them for a period of transition only. Nothing can be made
out as regards the eventual outcome. We do find that the transi-
tional effects are such as the theoretical analysis has led us to
expect ; the price of foreign exchange is low, for example, during the
stage of heavy borrowing, and the prices of export commodities are