MINERAL OIL 277 
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productive, while of these sunk without that advice only 
5 per cent. had been productive. Seventeen wells sunk in 
accordance with geological advice were successful for one 
sunk at random! The unproductive expenditure in the 
search for oil is shown by the statement in the Queensland 
Government Mining Journal (xxvii, March, 1926, p. 85) from 
“a competent authority,” that in the United States 12 
billion dollars have been spent in the search for flow oil, 
exceeding by four billion dollars the total value of the oil 
recovered. 
Although the supply of oil is not assured the temptation 
to use it regardless of the future is strong because it is such 
an ideal fuel, being clean, easy of transport, and economical 
of labour. Light oils are at present indispensable for motor 
engines, and oil has no rival in lighting isolated houses. 
Its use for shipping has such advantages that while in 1914 
the tonnage of oil-using steamers was 1,310,000 tons, the 
tonnage had increased by 1924 to 17,154,000. In January 
1925, of the shipping then under construction, 60 per cent. 
were designed for oil engines. The increase of motor traffic 
leads to increasing demands on the light oils; in 1925 there 
were 10,054,347 registered motor cars in the United States, 
and the output of motors in that country in 1926 was 43 
millions. The number of motor cars in Britain in 1926 was 
almost 2 million. 
With these increasing demands warnings have been often 
made that the oil supply of the world would be early 
exhausted. The highest authorities have repeatedly stated 
that the United States output was at its maximum, and that 
a serious decline must begin. Nevertheless, to the confusion 
of the prophets its output in 1926 was its highest, and it 
provides 70 per cent. of the world’s supply. Similar pre- 
dictions have been even more positive in regard to natural 
gas. Pogue in 1921 claimed that the maximum had been 
passed, and yet the output had increased 60 per cent. by 1924, 
and has continued to rise slightly. The predictions do not 
suggest any absolute exhaustion of petroleum because a 
higher percentage from the oil beds could be won; but 
these methods involve such increased cost that oil would 
become too expensive for many uses. In 1917 the rise in 
oil prices owing to the War led to an orgy of well-drilling