THE UNITED STATES, II. 1900-1914 303 
total exports on terms as advantageous as before, certainly no more 
disadvantageous. The curve of gross barter terms, like that of 
net barter terms, does not mount. 
This is an unexpected result. It is unexpected for both accounts 
— the net account and the gross. On general principles we should 
look for terms of trade more unfavorable in the second stage. The 
excess in the money volume of the exports meant, to repeat, that 
the United States, in meeting the divers additional charges for 
immigrants’ remittances, tourist expenditures, interest, and the 
like, sent out goods having a greater money value than the goods 
she bought. The process would presumably mean that the United 
States was pushing the sale of her goods in foreign countries, was 
offering them at lower prices, would send out relatively greater 
physical quantities — would have barter terms less favorable. It 
does not appear to have been so. The heavy debit items were met 
without this disadvantageous consequence. The case shows an 
outcome different from that in Great Britain and Canada during 
the same period. For these countries, the actual course of events 
proves to be in accord with theoretical prevision. For the United 
States it does not. 
[ am not sure that this anomaly can be satisfactorily explained. 
But there are at least possibilities of explanation. The two sets of 
cases — Great Britain and Canada on the one hand, the United 
States on the other — while alike in one respect, are unlike in 
others. Both in Great Britain and Canada one single factor was 
dominating the changing course of international trade. In Great 
Britain it was the great lendings, the capital exports; in Canada 
it was the great borrowings, the capital imports. But in the 
United States the situation was not so simple. We have grounds 
for believing that there was not merely the one new factor of heavy 
debit charges and heavy remittances. Other factors also changed, 
or at least were greatly modified or accentuated. 
First to be mentioned is the accumulated effect of the protective 
tariff policy so long maintained by the country. Here there may 
be — we must speak in guarded terms — an illustration of the 
working of duties on imports, as set forth in Chapter 13. The