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It will be seen that there was one fall—in 
the period 1891-1895. But beginning with 
that period the advance was continuous. A 
glance at Diagram I. will show the upward 
course of the world’s export trade. 
When we look at the decennial averages in 
Statement A we see a steady increase in the 
world’s export trade. And this method is 
probably the best that can be used to make 
the course of trade disclose itself. It has been 
extensively applied by me in my “ British 
Trade Year Book ” (John Murray), and I may 
point out that when the trade of single 
countries is thus treated by the method of 
decennial averages many up or down gradients 
of trade are seen to exist, which, as the latter 
part of Statement A shows, are wholly absent 
from the trade of the world. 
It is, I think, to be expected that the trade 
of the world should constantly increase, apart 
from the evidence of fact given in Statement A, 
which relates to one important part of the 
world’s trade. I say this because we have the 
fact that the world’s population is constantly 
increasing. This means that the material 
needs of that population also constantly in 
crease. Therefore, the world’s activity in 
producing merchandise of all sorts, for con 
sumption by the world’s increasing population,