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Table  I.  illustrates  the  tendency  of  trade
to  fall  in  one  part  of  the  world,  and  simultaneously ­
  to  rise  in  another  part  of  the  world.
In  three  years  Europe’s  exports  fell  and  in
the  same  years  the  exports  of  the  Rest  of  the
World  rose.  In  two  years  the  process  was
reversed.  In  one  year  Europe’s  exports  rose
and  the  other  exports  did  not  move.  And  in
the  other  eight  years  Europe’s  exports  fell  or
rose  disproportionately  to  the  simultaneous  rise
or  fall  in  the  exports  of  the  Rest  of  the  World.
Observe  that  there  was  only  one  instance
(1893  to  1894)  when  a  fall  in  Europe’s  exports
was  accompanied  by  a  fall  in  the  exports  of
the  Rest  of  the  World,  and  note  that  the  latter
fall  was  trivial.
Here  we  have  repeated  instances  of  what
I  may  call  compensating  trade  fluctuations,
despite  the  general  rising  tendency  (which  we
expect)  both  in  Europe’s  exports  and  in  the
exports  of  the  Rest  of  the  World.  The  first
instance  of  this  compensating  trade  movement
occurs  in  the  first  year  of  the  table,  when
Europe’s  exports  fell  by  £20,000,000  and  the
exports  of  the  Rest  of  the  World  rose  by
£19,000,000.
It  is,  of  course,  not  to  be  expected  that
there  should  occur  an  exact  degree  of  compensating ­
  trade  fluctuation  over  the  vast  areas
L  2