CHAPTER  IV.

WHY  GEOGRAPHICAL  DISTRIBUTION
PROTECTS  BOTH  CAPITAL  AND  INCOME.
By  means  of  the  examples  already  given  in
this  book  we  have  clearly  established  the  fact
that  every  individual  purchase  of  stock  is
strongly  tinged  with  the  element  of  speculation, ­
  and  that  this  speculative  element  cannot
be  eliminated  from  any  isolated  purchase  or
from  any  individual  holding,  for  it  is  impossible
to  predict  the  exact  future  of  any  individual
stock.
It  is  true  that  a  close  investigation  of  the
inherent  safety  and  value  of  a  particular
security  may  serve  as  a  most  useful  and,
indeed,  a  very  necessary  guide  to  future  probabilities. ­
  But  probabilities  are  by  no  means
certainties,  and  anyone  who  pronounces  this
or  that  investment  to  be  a  practical  certainty
should  be  regarded  with  distrust  by  all  prudent
investors.
It  would,  perhaps,  be  impossible  to  find  a
more  convincing  example  of  the  slender
foundation  upon  which  all  investment  certainties ­
  rest  than  is  furnished  by  Consols.