THE  TREASURY

105

inal  principal  of  the  Loan  greater  than  in  any  of  the
preceding  cycles,  but  in  so  far  as  available  data
make  any  intelligent  opinion  possible  —  the  ratio  of
such  anticipatory  borrowing  to  the  investment  or
“  savings  ”  absorption  of  the  loan  was  notably
greater.  Moreover  the  later  maturity  of  the  final
certificate  issues  (extending  up  to  January  30,
I 9 I 9).  combined  with  the  heavy  overpayment  of  the
first  installment  of  the  loan  whereby  only  some  14
per  cent,  of  the  Loan  was  left  unpaid,  and  the  relatively ­
  minor  use  of  certificates  in  connection  therewith ­
  —  make  it  reasonably  certain  that  such  issues
must  be  either  refunded  or  liquidated  from  out  of
the  proceeds  of  subsequent  short-term  borrowing. 13
Confronted  as  the  Treasury  is  with  heavy  deficiency
appropriations  and  with  additional  tax  revenue  still
in  process  of  enactment  and  destined  to  become  only
slowly  available,  certificate  financing  faces  not  only
the  inevitable  disadvantage  of  borrowing  to  pay
debts  but  the  graver  necessity  of  renewal  and  extension ­
  of  existing  short-term  loans  in  face  of  the  need
of  additional  borrowing  —  unless  indeed  further
recourse  is  to  be  had  in  one  form  or  another  to  bank
borrowing  or  to  the  projection  of  a  succeeding  Loan
earlier  than  has  heretofore  been  deemed  prudent.
An  unexpected  termination  of  the  war  has,  of
13  The  issue  of  the  second  series  of  1919  tax  anticipation
certificates  dated  November  7  (Series  1)  closed  on  November
27,  with  total  subscriptions  to  the  amount  of  $794,172,500.  On
November  8,  1918,  the  Treasury  gave  notice  of  the  redemption
at  par  and  accrued  interest  on  November  21,  1918,  of  the
$575,706,500  certificate  issue  of  August  6,  1918,  maturing  December ­
  s,  1918  (Commercial  and  Financial  Chronicle,  November ­
  9,  1918,  p.  1784)  ;  December  7,  19x8,  p.  2138).