﻿THE TREASURY

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inal principal of the Loan greater than in any of the
preceding cycles, but in so far as available data
make any intelligent opinion possible — the ratio of
such anticipatory borrowing to the investment or
“ savings ” absorption of the loan was notably
greater. Moreover the later maturity of the final
certificate issues (extending up to January 30,
I9I9). combined with the heavy overpayment of the
first installment of the loan whereby only some 14
per cent, of the Loan was left unpaid, and the rela-
tively minor use of certificates in connection there-
with — make it reasonably certain that such issues
must be either refunded or liquidated from out of
the proceeds of subsequent short-term borrowing.13
Confronted as the Treasury is with heavy deficiency
appropriations and with additional tax revenue still
in process of enactment and destined to become only
slowly available, certificate financing faces not only
the inevitable disadvantage of borrowing to pay
debts but the graver necessity of renewal and exten-
sion of existing short-term loans in face of the need
of additional borrowing — unless indeed further
recourse is to be had in one form or another to bank
borrowing or to the projection of a succeeding Loan
earlier than has heretofore been deemed prudent.
An unexpected termination of the war has, of

13 The issue of the second series of 1919 tax anticipation
certificates dated November 7 (Series 1) closed on November
27, with total subscriptions to the amount of $794,172,500. On
November 8, 1918, the Treasury gave notice of the redemption
at par and accrued interest on November 21, 1918, of the
$575,706,500 certificate issue of August 6, 1918, maturing De-
cember s, 1918 (Commercial and Financial Chronicle, Novem-
ber 9, 1918, p. 1784) ; December 7, 19x8, p. 2138).