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no common opinion as to the period of time which
must elapse before the effect of an increase in the
volume of currency becomes apparent in rising
prices. A recent study 10 of English experience in
this particular made by Professor J. Shield Nichol-
son of the University of Edinburgh led to the con-
clusion that the period in which the increase in cur-
rency worked itself out in higher prices — happily
described as “ the period of incubation ” was about
five months. A similar analysis11 of Canadian ex-
perience by Mr. W. C. Clark of Kingston, Ontario,
established the period of incubation for that country
to be six months — a difference “ one would expect
in a country less densely populated and less highly
industrialized, as Canada is.” For the United
States, Professor Irving Fisher, examining the fig-
ures up to the time of our entry into the war, finds
that after the middle of 1915 ‘‘a change in price
level follows a change in total money after a lag of
about two months,” 12 and in a later resume this is
restated as “ a lag in this country of less than two
months/’ 13

It is not unlikely that as fuller data become avail-
able Professor Fisher’s computation will indicate a
longer lag than the original estimate, as did appar-

10	“ Statistical Aspects of Inflation ” in Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society, July, 1917.

11	Clark, “ Inflation and Prices ” in Journal of the Canadian
Bankers’ Association, January, 1918.

12	“ The Equation of Exchange for 1916 ” in American Eco-
nomic Review, December, 1917, p. 937.

13	“ Some Contributions of the War to our Knowledge of
Money and Prices ” (abstract) in American Economic Review,
Supplement, March, 1918, p. 258.