EMPLOYMENT PSYCHOLOGY 
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means of mere observation. But can mere observation 
gauge the beat of a man’s pulse, or the pressure of his 
blood, or the temperature of his body? Can it detect any 
one of the hundred and one ailments which may afflict 
an individual healthy to all outward appearances? What 
should we think of an insurance company which selected 
its risks by mere observation, or of an army which selected 
its men by giving them only the “once over”? The 
physical examination, with its thoroughness, its mechan 
ical aids, its chemical analysis, is a standing testimony 
to the unreliability of observation. To guess correctly 
nine times out of ten may be possible, especially to those 
who are gifted with the knack. However, an insurance 
company which guessed correctly nine times out of ten 
would be bankrupt in a very short time. And an army 
which made only one mistake in ten would in all prob 
ability break down at the crucial test. Industries, until 
recently, have labored along under the economic burden 
which their mistakes in this respect imposed on them. 
However, there are now signs in the recognition of the im 
portance of the labor-turnover problem that these mis 
takes will not be tolerated much longer. 
The phrase, observational method, is used here to mean 
making an estimate of an individual on the basis of a 
cursory scrutiny of his general appearance and of those 
actions which are likely to appear during the characteristic 
short employment interview. Naturally, the longer an 
observation is continued the more things about an in 
dividual it can include and the more reliable the resulting 
judgment will be. But, even prolonged observations are 
not necessarily reliable, and it often happens that, after 
having known friends for years, we find that we have 
not really known them at all. The employment interview