. MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
is suggested by incidents which took place in the years 1920 and 
1921. In hearings before the House Committee on Immigration 
and Naturalization in April, 1920, it was testified that “there is a 
labor shortage in practically every industrial activity. It amounts 
to not less than that of 5,000,000 men. In addition there is a dearth 
of agricultural labor and of domestic servants to an extent difficult 
of calculation.” And it was urged that under the circumstances, 
“a policy looking to the exclusion of the immigrant would hamper 
and curtail our natural development and lead to a world-wide 
calamity.’’s 
Within a few months after the above testimony was given, it was 
obvious that industry was entering a depression period, and in 
September, 1921, the President’s Conference on Unemployment 
met in Washington to consider measures for the relief of from “four 
to five million unemployed resulting from the business slump of 
1921.7 
It seems a far cry from circumstances which could by 
anyone be interpreted as indicating a shortage of at least five 
million men to a condition where, in contrast, the numbers of un- 
employed are estimated in terms of millions. It would appear 
desirable that a more definite connotation should be given to the 
terms “labor supply” and ‘labor shortage,” and that particular 
consideration should be given to the relation of the business cycle 
to the validity of estimates of surplus or shortage in the supply of 
labor. Such, in part, is the purpose of this study. 
The Long-Time and Short-Time Points of View. 
In seeking to determine the relation of migration to the demands 
of industry for man-power, a distinction may well be made between 
what may be appropriately designated, respectively, as the long- 
time and the short-time points of view. From the long-time point 
of view we are concerned with the relatively permanent adjustments 
in industry which are hampered, furthered, or necessitated by 
changes in the volume of immigration. To treat this phase of the 
Statements included in a memorial adopted at the National Conference on Im- 
migration, and submitted to the House Committee by Mr. Marshall. U.S. Immigration 
and Naturalization Committee (House) Hearings, 66 Con., 1-3 Sess., 1919-1921, p. 38. 
This estimate of 5,000,000 shortage was apparently obtained by computing the net 
immigration which would have taken place if the 1914 rate of immigration and emi- 
gration had continued, and making an additional allowance for the shorter hours in 
industry in recent years. 
*National Bureau of Economic Research, Business Cycles and Unemployment, Fore- 
word by Herbert Hoover, p. v. 
24.