es MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
A comparison with the cycles in the production of pig iron in the
United States indicates that in the discrepancies of 1906 and 1911
the “new’’ immigration conforms more closely than the “old” to the
fluctuations in pig iron production. However, such industrial expansion
 as is indicated by pig iron production in 1912 and 1913 is
scarcely sufficient to offer an obviously, adequate explanation of
the marked increase in the immigration from southern and eastern
Europe in the year ending June 30, 1913.
Both immigration series show a moderately high degree of agreement
 with the cyclical fluctuations in pig iron when immigration
for twelve months ending June 30th is compared with production
in the year ending the previous December.
Emigration to Selected Countries (Chart 37)
In analyzing the fluctuations in emigration by country of intended
future residence of the emigrant, we have again selected for comparison
 the aggregate of the countries of northern and western
Europe, frequently designated as the “old” sources of immigration;
the aggregate of the countries of eastern and southern Europe,
known as the “new’’ sources; and lastly, a few of the constituents
of these two groups: namely, Italy, Austria-Hungary, Russia,
Greece, the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, and Germany.
Emigration declined to all the selected countries in the year ending
June 30, 1909, and continued to decline in 1910 for Scandinavia and
eastern and southern Europe except Greece. It rose to all these
countries in 1911 and 1912, except to Germany; fell in 1913 to all
but Greece; and rose in 1914 to all but Greece and Italy.
By the year ending June 30, 1919, or at least by 1920, emigration
to each of the countries under consideration exhibited a recovery
from the small volume of the war period; but, under the influence
of the restrictions on immigration imposed in 1921, which have
tended to discourage emigration as well as immigration, there has
been in recent years a distinct downward trend in emigration from
the United States.
It is evident that there is a substantial similarity in the direction
of the year-to-year changes in the number of emigrants to these
several European countries. The most striking exception to the
general movement is the heavy exodus to Greece in 1913, when the
1The Pearsonian coefficient of correlation is +.63 + .06 for the “old” immigration
and pig iron and +.68 + .06 for the “new.”

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