= MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES 
above the zero line indicates the estimated increase in the number 
employed as compared with the preceding month; a bar below the 
zero line, an estimated decrease from the preceding month. The 
curve represents the typical pre-war net migration of males in the 
given month. 
TABLE 59.—ESTIMATE OF THE SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN 
SELECTED INDUSTRIES IN THE PRE-WAR PERIOD» 
(Adjusted for cyclical variations but not for trend) 
Thousands of persons 
NUMBER EMPLOYED IN GIVEN INCREASE (+) or DrcrEASE (—) 
MONTH FROM PRECEDING MONTH 
SELECTED ) SELECTED 
MoNTH 2) pve OUTDOOR INDUS- AY% STR OUTDOOR INDUS- 
TRIES® TRIES 
A B C D 
Jan. . . 8,213.0 992.0 —136.6 —169.6 
Feb... 8,266.9 996.6 + 53.9 + 4.6 
Mar... 8426.6 1,105.1 +159.7 --108.5 
Apr... 8,477 4 1,263.9 + 50.8 +158.8 
May. . 8,758.2 1,531.3 4-280. 8 +4-267 .4 
June. . 8912.3 1,661.3 +154.1 +130.0 
July . . 8932.7 1,752.5 + 20.4 101.2 
Aug... 9.134. 6 1,851.8 1201.9 + 99.3 
Sept... 9,150.4 1,755.4 1715.8 — 06 
Oct. . . 9,146.0 1,666.2 Sh eet S053 
Nov... 8,899.1, 1,503.4 —246.9 —162.8 
Dec. . . 8,504.0 1.0737 —395.1 —329.7 
»These figures represent an estimate of the joint effects of seasonal and trend factors. The indices of 
seasonal variation given in the preceding tables were applied to the numbers employed in the respective 
industries in 1909, as recorded in the Census or estimated from other sources, and then the results were 
adjusted by adding the estimated effect of trend movements as indicated by data for the years 1907 to 1914. 
bIncludes factory employment, bituminous and anthracite coal mining, railway maintenance, and cons- 
t 5 
Pre struction and railway maintenance. 
5 dComputed from Columns A and B, with allowance for trend in computing the December to January 
change. 
Assuming that our estimates present a true picture of the typical 
changes in employment and in net male migration prior to the quota 
restrictions, we observe from Chart 55, Fig. A, and the tables upon 
which it is based, that in January there is a small net excess of alien 
male arrivals over departures, to the extent of about 5,500 persons, 
while employment in the selected industries decreases about 137,000. 
In the following eight months an excess of arriving over departing 
alien males is, in each case, accompanied by an increase in the 
number employed. In all these months but April, July, and Sep- 
224