LAND ECONOMICS 
131 
culations. Such disturbing factors are the pride of ownership 
which will induce many people to accept a comparatively low rate 
of return upon land investments, and departures from perfect 
competition due to the influence of such institutions and forces 
as custom, monopoly, and public authority. 
In view of the importance of guiding present valuations and 
activities by estimates of what the future will bring, a large part 
of economic thought is being devoted to the problems of fore- 
casting prices, values, and trends of utilization. Forecasting is 
not peculiar to land economics; in fact, an interest in scientific 
forecasting of land values has followed a similar interest in the 
field of business economies. Being such a new part of the 
science of land economics, forecasting has not been developed 
much beyond the point of indicating the kind of data on which 
forecasts should rest. An adequate statistical basis is still lacking, 
but will probably be an outstanding development in the future. 
In forecasting land values a distinction is drawn between the 
short-time and long-time movements of values. The short-time 
fluctuations are usually restricted to small areas and do not 
affect generally the long-time movements. Forecasting for long 
periods of time concerns itself with those factors which affect the 
economic supply of land and the demand for land, or the demand 
for the products and services of land which amounts to the same 
thing. The factors that are most emphasized as affecting the 
demand for land are: growth of population, development or 
decay of industry and commerce, communication and transport, 
quantity and quality of public improvements, the purchasing 
power and standard of living of the people, the habits, customs, 
and fashions of buyers of the products and services of land. The 
economic supply of land is affected by such factors as the develop- 
ment of means of transport, improvements in the technique of 
land utilization, and the quantity, quality, and efficiency of labor. 
The relation between some of these factors, so far as it has been 
ascertained up to the present time, has already been stated as a 
general principle of land values. It may now be stated as a more 
formal definition as follows: Other things remaining equal, in a 
progressive society, one in which the technique of land utilization 
is improving, with increasing wealth and stationary population, 
land values will decline. Specific exceptions to this general rule 
can, of course, be pointed out.