CHAPTER 30 SOME EXPERIENCES UNDER PAPER MONEY I AM unable to attempt anything in the way of extended test or substantiation of the lines of reasoning followed in the preceding chapters. Voluminous as is the literature on paper money and on international trade under paper money, little investigation has been made that would bear directly on this sort of analysis. The absence of inductive studies that might serve to. confirm it or refute it is due partly to the changing and unstable character of the events themselves — paper currency issues commonl, are § .bject to arbitrary and irregular fluctuations — but also to d . lack of adequate statistical data. In the main I must ask the reader to take the theorems here laid down as theorems only, as abstract doctrines or preliminary approximations, subject to correction, possibly rejection, as further and more searching inquiry is made on the actual course of events. Two episodes, however, may be considered for the light which they throw on the validity of this theoretic procedure. Both are paper money episodes; one in the United States, the other in Argentina. Both are comparatively recent, having taken place in the latter part of the 19th century. Both have been the subject of painstaking inquiry.! The experience of the United States from the close of the Civil War in 1865 to the resumption of specie payments in 1879 is instruc- ! The evidence set forth in the following pages is derived entirely from Professor F. D. Graham's paper on International Trade under Depreciated Paper; The United States 1862-1879, published in The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 1922; and from Professor J. H. Williams's book on Argentine Inter- national Trade under Inconvertible Paper Money 1880-1900, published in the Harvard Economic Studies, 1920. Everything that I am able to adduce on the two episodes is taken from these admirable studies. My own interpretation of the results is not always quite the same as that of the authors; but I am indebted to them for everything that may be of value, and am glad to acknowledge my nhbligation. 202