The Threat to Business 59 
is always hazardous in economic statistics, and I wish 
to avoid making any definite prediction, it would not 
be surprising if at about the time this book is pub- 
lished the worst of the depression will have been felt 
and improvement may be looked for. 
Probably the slowest in recovery will be the stock 
market, for the reason that the large buyers who 
were responsible for high stock prices have had their 
wings clipped and their buying power destroyed or 
impaired. Their places cannot soon be taken, as it 
requires a long time for others to acquire their in- 
timate knowledge of the prospects of individual 
concerns. Moreover, the faith in those prospects 
has been shattered by the crash itself, and the gen- 
eral trend toward stocks and away from bonds has 
been retarded. 
The business situation is reflected in the analysis 
of the National City Bank Circular for January, 
1930, which compares the panic month of November, 
1929, with business conditions during November of 
1928. It contains a list of notable recessions, espe- 
cially in the list of metals, with steel production down 
by 17.7 per cerit—probably on account of the decline 
in building and in automobile production, which had 
declined by 20 per cent, with New York City sales of 
motor cars down by 30 per cent. Building permits 
were down by 28 per cent, and building contracts by 
I7 per cent. Carloadings, an important index, had 
diminished by 5.4 per cent in this comparison. Con- 
sumption of electric power had diminished by 7.8 
Per cent, sugar consumption by 25 per cent, rubber