$40 
AGRICULTURAL RELIEF 
Mr. KiLgore. Why, I think so. ; 
Mr. Fort. And, again, you would have to buy how many million 
bales to do it? 
Mr. KicoreE. Well, I estimate 3,000,000 bales as the maximum 
for an 18,000,000-bale crop such as 1926, our biggest crop, under such 
conditions. 
Mr. Fort. Three million bales at 16 cents? 
Mr. Kincore. I do not know; I say that is the maximum general 
estimate. 
Mr. Fort. Sixteen-cent cotton is $80 a bale, is it not? 
Mr. KiLcorE. Yes, sir. 
Mr. Fort. That is a total of $240,000,000; that is $80,000,000 from 
the revolving fund and the balance from the bank. Now, of that 
$80,000,000 how much do you contemplate might be lost in buying 
3,000,000 bales of cotton at 16 cents from any experience you have 
had in the market? 
Mr. Kircore. I do not know; I would not want to guess. 
Mr. Fort. Have you had any experience to make you think any 
of it would be lost? 
Mr. Kincore. If it is stabilized too near the cost of production 
there is a chance to lose, but a greater chance under the loan bill 
than under the equilization fee. 
Mr. Fort. Would there be much loss, do you think? We have 
got to figure this thing in terms of prospects. We have got to guess, 
admit. From your knowledge of the business would there be any 
oss? 
Mr. KiLcore. I think the chances are with cotton stabilized at 
xe cents, with an 18.000.000-bale crop there would have been some 
0SSs. 
Mr. Fort. How much—3 or 4 cents a pound? 
1 Mz Kincore. I would be guessing purely, and I.do not want to 
o that. 
Mr. Fort. Somebody has got to guess. 
Mr. KiLcore. I know it. 
Mr. Fort. The board has got to guess if we do not. Let us do 
some guessing first. 
Mr. Kircore. There is this to be considered, if it costs 114 to 2 
cents a pound to carry cotton a year, if you bought it at 17 cents and 
sold it at 18 cents after you had carried it a year, then you would have 
a loss. You would have to absorb 114 to 2 cents per pound on the 
cotton, or $7.50 to $10 a bale? 
Mr. Fort. Yes. 
Mr. Kincore. Now, if you carry that one or two years, then you 
would have to get a considerable increase above the cost of produc- 
tion price, or the purchase price, in order not to sustain a loss. 
Mr. Forr. What I am trying to get at, Doctor, is I am trying to 
figure how serious you think the losses to the Government might be 
under the Crisp bill? 
~ Mr. KiLGorE. I think the way it operates if we take the sections 
in there where it says that they shall buy only when they do buy so 
as to sell and not to sustain a loss but to make profits—I think if 
y ou operate that way under the Crisp bill that you would buy down 
= ow that you would not have effective stabilization for the man 
who needed it most. and you likely would not sustain anv losses.