138

AGRICULTURAL RELIEF
Mr. Fort. I am taking your own figure of 12 cents. Now, then,
buying 3,000,000 bales of cotton in any year in the history of the
United States at 12 cents—any year since 1900, certainly, when
money got to anything like its present value—would there be any
possibility of loss on any of our past history?

Mr. KiLcore. I could not answer that offhand.

Mr. Fort. Do you think so?

Mr. KiLcore. I think you would have to take the actual experi-
ence—what actually happened in the market in that time—and run
through it to determine. If I would say yes or no, I would be merely
guessing. I would say, if we were to take our 1926 experience,
will say we would not have a loss; there would be a gain.

Mr. Fort. And that is the biggest crop you ever had?

Mr. Kincork. That is our biggest crop.

Mr. Fort. Then apparently we do not have to face the picture of
a possible loss on the 12-cent price. Now, you said—

Mr. KiLcore. Under those conditions——

Mr. Fort. Now, we have no history to indicate that we would
have to face a loss on 12-cent cotton.

Mr. KiLcore. Oh, yes; if vou were going back far enough there
would be.

Mr. Fort. I said 1900.

Mr. KiLcore. And in any case it depends on business conditions,
when we take it.

Mr. Fort. I do not mean you might have had a loss within a year.
At what prices would you say it would be risky to stabilize it so as
not to have a loss?

Mr. KiLcorE. I would not want to say that.

Mr. Fort. You said a moment ago at 16 or 17 cents you might
have trouble. Do you want to name that or any higher price as the
point at which it would be risky?

Mr. Kircore. With the cost of production estimated at 18 cents,
then 16 or 17 cents would be much more risky than 12 cents, and I
think under the equalization fee bill, where there would be a guarantee
that loss as could be met, you could take that risk of 16 or 17 cents,
which the board might not want to do under the loan bill. |

Mr. Fort. Then would it be your idea that the board operating
under the Haugen bill in 1926 would have held the price at 16 or 17
cents, but under the Crisp bill it would have only held it at 12 cents;
is that your theory?

Mr. KiLcore. That is what is running in my mind, and yet I
have got hindsight rather than foresight on the 1926 crop, and I
know what happened.

Mr. Fort. Let us go back where it was foresight. Did you not
say to me, Doctor, in December, 1926, that the stabilization of cotton
at even 15 cents a pound, when it was then 12, would result in such
overproduction of cotton as to ruin the cotton industry?

Mr. KiLgore. I do not know whether I did or not.

Mr. Fort. That is my recollection.

Mr. KiLaore. I would not say that now.

Mr. Fort. In view of hindsight?

Mr. KiLGoRE. In view of hindsight.

Mr. Fort. But if the farmers do raise a 19,000,000 bale crop, do
you think they ought to have the price stabilized at a profitable basis?