THE PROBLEM OF PROFITS 159

The speculator, ordinarily so ¢alled, is either blindly
gambling, or is engaged in intelligently anticipating the
future. The former class of speculators can hardly be too
strongly condemned. They are as likely to guess wrongly,
and so lead to a greater diversion of productive energies, to
ends which will turn out useless, than would have taken
Place had they been inactive, as to guess rightly, It might
Probably be maintained that the chances are in favour of
the former. But the speculator who devotes himself to
Securing some indication of what the future’s needs are
likely to be, if he be reasonably capable, is likely to guess
fight more often than he guesses wrong, and thus his acts
lead to a balance of advantage, in securing a better adjustment
 of productive energies to the needs which materialise
than would take place without his interference,
As an example we will take the case of a speculator in
Wheat who finds reason to anticipate a shortage in the
harvest. He seeks to buy early before others realise the
shortage, As a result, especially if others follow his example,
an early rise of price occurs, checking consumption, and thus
Providing better resources for the time of need than would
have remained had no such early check to consumption
Occurred, In the converse case of excessive supplies, stores
May be reduced by an early fall of price, and thus the effect
of excessive harvest supplies be somewhat modified, since
the Previously existing supplies have been removed before
the glut occurs.
In considering the economic service rendered by the
SPeculator, there has been held in view such operations as
are based on facts, and reasonable anticipation of facts, not
Such as are based on false rumours deliberately given
Currency for the purpose of reaping a profit. The utilisation
of such modes of making gain by deceiving others need
a blind us to the real service, which is founded on no
a, and which assists in making the adjustment of pro-Uction
 to demand take place more smoothly.