254 ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES

for, without the duty, the expenses of placing the goods on
the market might be diminished both by the amount of
the duty and by some saving in ordinary expenses of production
 in addition. On the other hand, the supply of the
market from foreign sources may check the growth of a
domestic industry to a magnitude at which it can realise the
chief economies of large-scale production and marketing.
Hence, though the immediate effect of an import duty may
be a rise of price, its ultimate effect may be a fall of price,
through the fostering of a domestic enterprise. This is the
case which has attracted a great deal of attention, as one in
which convinced free-traders admit the possibility of gain
from a protective tariff of customs duties: it is the case of
the “infant industry.” The point where much of the argument,
 as to the tendency of trade to run along the most
advantageous lines, if left without interference, needs modification,
 is in reference to the question of whether present or
future advantage is in view. In the initiatory stages of
industrial enterprises, they may present no certain prospect
of profit, but rather of loss. If the same men, who bear the
losses of the early stages, could reap the profits, when a
profit-earning stage has been reached, the advantage of
interference would disappear. But this is not generally the
case. Hence some encouragement to the pioneers may be
desirable. Various methods of affording such encouragement
 have been mentioned above. The mode now under
consideration is to secure an elevation of price of the
commodity concerned by hampering or preventing the
importation of that commodity.
That a rise of price is the real object of the imposition of
import duties is clear enough, apart from the theoretic view
as to the necessary tendency of such duties. If the price
were not raised, the way would not be smoothed for the
pioneer domestic producers. Subsequent reduction of price,
when the industry gains strength, may arise from competition
of these producers among themselves. Experience, however,
shows that the price may be kept up, by some kind of mutual
arrangement among producers, long after the domestic
industry has been developed to a point where it can produce