82 CANADA AND THE EMPIRE.

of merchandise Britain will lose some of the preference
 she now enjoys. As regards all other
articles included in the preference, everything points
to the extreme unlikelihood of the High Protectionist
 party getting their way in the matter, and,
as the Liberals favour the preference, they will
endeavour to keep it where it is at present. This
is what will probably happen, whether Britain
gives a preference or not, for the threat of withdrawing
 the preference that the Canadian Ministers
used at the Colonial Conference will not be enforced
 so long as Liberal opinion remains what
it is at present. The net result, therefore, will
probably be a compromise. Britain will find herself
 in a slightly less good position than at present
in comparison with Canadian manufacturers. The
only way to make up for this loss will be to raise
the tariff against foreigners; but it cannot be expected
 that a party with revenue tariff principles
and pledges, and a most decided opinion of the
value of access to the market of the United States,
will make it prohibitive. An increase of 10 per cent.
on the tariff against foreign nations has often been
given as a conjecture ; it seems extremely doubtful
whether such increase would bring much profit to
Britain. The net result to Britain, with certain
loss in such important lines as cotton and wool,
and probable gain in others, would most likely
affect her total Canadian trade but little. This
will probably be the case whether Britain gives a
return preference or not. Canada cannot give