CHAPTER VI,
CONCLUSIONS,

SECTION 1. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM.

The history of the American export trade, from its early beginnings
to the present, closely reflects the changes in the economic development
 of the country. During the last century, as one section of the
country after another was settled and their products began to seek
the markets of the world, by far the greatest part of the exports congisted
 of products derived directly from field, forest, and mine, with
little elaboration by manufacture. About thé beginning of the
présent century, manufactured goods were rapidly forming a more
important proportion of the total exports. They then constituted
nearly one-third of the total, and by the time of the outbreak of the
present war they constituted nearly one-half. This development
brought about a situation which has led to a wide demand for radical
changes in the Araerican form of organization for handling export
trade, because of the character of the competition encountered in
foreign markets by manufactured goods.
The Federal Trade Commission, in its study of the export situation,
has endeavored to take the problem in its broad historical aspect.
It has considered the present war condition as a temporary interlude,
whose permanent influence is difficult to estimate correctly now, and
has therefore based this study chiefly on conditions and tendencies
before the war.
It is frequently asserted that when peace comes the manufacturers
and producers of the belligerent countries will take effective measures
to regain their former trade. It is likely, however, that some time
will pass after the close of the war before they will be able to
axert their normal competitive power. Much capital, including large
stocks of materials, will be needed to restore the wastage of war. For
some time, also, after peace is declared, their costs of manufacture
are likely to be higher in many lines of industry than before the war,
due to increased costs of raw materials, increased taxes, and possibly
higher wages. In their struggle to regain their former trade such
foreign manufacturers and producers may be expected to fully utilize
their highly efficient organizations for the promotion and handling of
trade beyond their borders, even foregoing profit or taking a very low
profit till their costs again become normal and they have reestablished
70