120  THE  PROBLEM  OF  THE  UNEMPLOYED

Not  only  do  we  find  each  group  of  commodities  widely
and  variously  differing  from  the  others  in  the  proportionate
fall  of  price  between  1873  and  1894,  but  there  is  no  such
general  regularity  in  these  fluctuations  throughout  the
period  as  would  seem  necessary,  were  these  changes  all
dominated  by  the  single  factor  volume  of  currency.
Moreover,  if  we  analyse  the  several  groups  we  see  every
possible  variety  of  price-change  in  the  different  component
articles  consistent  with  a  general  downward  tendency.
The  more  we  split  up  the  groups  into  their  component
parts  the  larger  and  the  more  various  the  fluctuations  in
price.  While  this  is  inconsistent  with  an  explanation  of
fall  of  prices  by  volume  of  currency  it  is  not  merely
consistent  with  but  would  inevitably  follow  from  the
attribution  of  price-change  to  increase  of  supply  stimulated
by  improvements  of  machinery  of  manufacture  and  transport ­
  and  other  reductions  in  the  “cost”  of  production
of  a  number  of  different  commodities.
§  y.  Want  of  “  Confidence  ”  not  a  Vera  Causa—
Itself  a  Symptom.
The  refusal  of  bimetallists  and  other  monetary  specialists ­
  to  admit  these  tests  arises  from  their  refusal  to
realise  the  necessity  of  explaining  price-change  by  facts
relating  to  quantity  of  supply  and  demand  of  commodities
other  than  money.
Rejecting  on  a  priori  grounds  the  idea  of  a  general
excess  of  production,  they  are  driven  to  explain  bad
trade  and  the  apparent  surplus  of  forms  of  capital  by
causes  affecting  the  quantity  of  money  which  operates
upon  public  confidence.  This  attitude  of  mind  is  best
illustrated  in  one  who  was  in  no  sense  a  monetary