The nature of capital and income

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 102659555X

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-82920

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Fisher, Irving http://d-nb.info/gnd/118533541

Title:: The nature of capital and income

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: The Macmillan Company

Year of publication:: 1923

Scope:: XXI, 427 Seiten

Digitisation:: 2019

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Part III. Capital and income

Collection:: Economics Books

266 NATURE OF CAPITAL AND INCOME [Cmar. XVI the owner of a farm takes risks as to the effect of sun and rain and other meteorological conditions, as well as risks of the ravages of fire, insects, and other pests. In buying an overcoat a man takes some risk as to its effec- tiveness in excluding cold, and as to the length of time it will continue to be serviceable. Even what are called “gilt-edged” securities are not entirely free from risk. In a sense, therefore, every owner of property is a risk-taker. Some persons will estimate more highly than others the risks taken. From this fact it might seem that there is a distinction between the actual risk incurred and the estimate which individuals put upon it. But a little consideration will show that this distinction is spurious; for, by the nature of the case, chance is always an estimate. Chance is subjective. Although one man’s estimate may be better than another’s through superior knowledge, intui- tion, or experience, the best estimate is still only an estimate, not a certainty. In the actual world of events there is no uncertainty. Aside from human opinion, there is no such thing as chance. To an omniscient being, all things are certain. It must be admitted that this view of chance is not familiar to the ordinary man, nor is it universally accepted by the professed students of chance. Thus, writers like Dr. Venn, adhering to an objective theory, regard the chance of an event as the number of times it would occur in the long run, out of the total series.of possible occurrences. But no matter how long the “run,” the number of times the event actually occurs seldom corresponds exactly with the chance of its occurring. Even in so simple a case as coin- tossing, 1000 trials will not often give exactly 500 heads and 500 tails. Yet even the “long-run” theorists regard the chances of heads and tails as even. If 600 heads fall and only 400 tails, the odds are not 6 to 4. To this objec- tion the only answer offered by the long-run theorists is that the run is not long enough, that heads and tails are

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