Das Retablissement Ost- und Westpreußens unter der Mitwirkung und Leitung Theodors von Schön

Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 173388923X

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-112001

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Winkler, Hubert http://d-nb.info/gnd/117582093

Title:: Reis

Place of publication:: Hamburg

Publisher:: Dt. Auslandsverl. Bangert

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: VI, 138 Seiten; Ill.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Contents

Collection:: Economics Books

INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 193 In fact in some instances, the emigration movement precedes the corresponding change in pig iron production. For example, emi- gration reached high points in 1872 and 1881, and a low level in 1894, while the corresponding points in the pig iron curves are in 1873, 1882, and 1895, respectively. The suggestion conveyed by the analysis of these two sections of the chart is that cyclical fluctuations in industrial conditions in the United States and Germany are substantially similar but that in some instances the United States movement anticipates the German movement by about a year, and that coincident high industrial activity in the two countries is accompanied by large emigration from Germany and an industrial depression by small emigration. This apparent dominance of the ‘pull over the push’ may find some explanation in the fact that the fluctuations in industrial conditions in the United States appear more violent than those in Germany. This is illustrated by the comparison of the two pig iron curves in the lower section of Chart 44, expressed as percentage deviations from seven-year moving averages. As a rule, the Amer- ican curve rises higher in prosperity and falls further in depression, so that even when industrial expansion in the two countries coin- cides, the greater volume of the American fluctuation affords one logical explanation of its effectiveness in attracting an increase in immigration from Germany. Employment in Germany and the United States (Chart 45) A comparison of employment conditions in the United States and Germany, by quarters, from 1901 to 1908, affords an oppor- tunity for further study of a period which is marked by substantial differences in the concurrent status of industry in these two coun- tries. From 1901 to 1904, inclusive, the cyclical movement of quarterly employment in Germany was, on the whole, contrary to the corresponding movement in the United States, particularly in 1902, which was a year of low employment in Germany but a boom year in the United States. In 1905 to 1908, on the other hand, the two employment curves show better agreement, though the German labor market does not exhibit a recovery movement in the second half of 1908 such as occurred in the United States. ~ The cyclical movement in emigration from Germany appears in this period to be determined by, or at least to vary with, em- ployment conditions in the United States. With the exception of minor irregularities and an occasional lag of from one to three

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