Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES character of the data and the particular aspect of the problem which is under consideration. If the reader will note the type of chart used in each instance, it will facilitate his interpretation of the facts portrayed. Emigration during the Depression of 1893-1804. In the preceding discussion of the depression of 1894, we have made no allowance for the fact that there is an outgoing as well as an incoming stream of aliens. Prior to 1907 there were no official statis- ties of this movement, but something of its extent can be indicated by comparing the movement of incoming male immigrants with the number of outgoing male passengers in steerage, the great bulk of whom were doubtless alien emigrants. In the fiscal year 1892 (ending June 30, 1892) 96,834 male steerage passengers are reported as having departed, or twenty-five for each one hundred male im- migrants arriving; in 1893, the proportion is 28 to 100; in 1894, 61 to 100; and in 1895, 79 to 100. While these figures do not give us an exact measure of the numbers of emigrants, they are adequate to indicate that the volume of net immigration was materially reduced by the departure of aliens. We return to these data concerning out- going passengers at a later point in this chapter. Depression of 1904. As a background for analysis of the fluctuations of migration in the depression of 1904, we have plotted in Chart 16 immigration and factory employment for the five years from 1902 to 1906, inclusive. In so far as the two curves for male immigration and employment, respectively, are concerned, this chart is practically a reproduction of a section of Chart 13 to which we turned our attention earlier in the chapter, except that in this case the minor irregularities of the employment curve have not been smoothed out by reducing them to a three-month moving average, after the cor- rection for trend and seasonal variation was made. As in the depression of 1894, we again note a general similarity in the cyclical movements of the two series, with a few months lag on the part of immigration, the exact extent of which is rendered less obvious by the minor irregularities of the curves. It will be noted that the effect of the decline in employment which begins at the close of 1902 is not clearly revealed in the immigration curve until June of 1903; but that the first recovery movement in 1904 100

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