Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES H. Hansen. He correlated various monthly series with wholesale prices in the United States, and found the maximum correlation of prices with immigration (4.696) to occur when no lag is assigned to either series, but that the maximum correlation of employment and prices is obtained when unemployment changes are assumed to precede prices by three months. He makes the surmise that this earlier movement in employment “may possibly be explained in part at least by the fact that the building series precedes the in- TABLE 21.—CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF MALE IMMIGRANTS DURING THE DECLINE AND DEPRESSION PERIOD OF 1903-1904» Thousands of Persons NUMBER ARRIVED NUMBER ARRIVED YEAR gt Te YEAR —- a —_ AND MONTH SINCE | SINCE AND MONTH SINCE SINCE MARrcH, 1903» Drc., 1903¢ Marca, 1903 Dec., 1903 1903 1904 (con.) Apr. Le 100.3 GI Apr, itn 698.9 175.2 May.'..5. 200.1 be May... ... 768.5 244.8 June... ... 268.2 A June. .... 817.3 293.6 Judy... 312.1 op uly... 854.3 330.6 Angin 353.1 ha ATE 890.9 367.2 Sept... 399.9 SY) Sept... Tans 406.4 Ook. sons 451.1 — OL ns os 448.9 NOV. a 495.0 ep NOV. iii. en 495.5 Deel. ili, 523.7 Aral Dee. i 539.9 1904 1905 Jan... 543.2 19.58a Jan... ..-. aise 582.4 Pebii..k 567.5 43.8 Feb... Sele 634.9 Mar... ... 629.6 105.9 Mar....... 1. 736.7 aCompiled from Table II, in appendix. bThe data in this column cover the period of declining factory employment. » : Jee data in this column cover the period during which factory employment was below its computed rend. dustrial group by several months. The slackening of building operations would affect unemployment.” While Professor Hansen did not compute directly the correlation of immigration with pig iron and imports, his correlation with prices would suggest that the maximum degree of correlation between immigration and pig iron would be reached with immigration lagging one month, and likewise for imports. It may be mentioned in passing that other students of cyclical fluctuations in the first decade or so of the present century have found a close relation between immigration and industrial activity. The Brookmire service, in analyzing various cyclical phenomena 102

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